JPMorgan's New Bitcoin Target Explained: Volatility-Adjusted Fair Value vs. Gold

JPMorgan's New Bitcoin Target Explained: Volatility-Adjusted Fair Value vs. Gold

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has set a new long-term Bitcoin price target of $240,000, representing a major shift in outlook as the cryptocurrency market evolves from retail speculation to a macro asset class dominated by institutional liquidity. This forecast follows Bitcoin's (BTC) recent decline from an early October peak of $126,000 to around $82,000 in November 2025, with some stabilization near $86,610.

JPMorgan analysts note that Bitcoin's price movements are increasingly influenced by broad economic factors rather than the traditional four-year halving cycle. The institution describes this as a transition from a venture capital style ecosystem to a tradable macro asset class. The report highlights that retail investors’ selling of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs has driven recent market pullbacks, while crypto-native traders’ deleveraging stabilized in November.

JPMorgan also filed a structured product linked to BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, allowing investors to speculate on leveraged Bitcoin gains through 2028, with downside protection but potential for "uncapped" returns.

This updated target implies Bitcoin as a multi-year growth play rather than a cyclical asset, with significant upside potential amid current volatility and a more mature market environment.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. arrived at its new long-term Bitcoin price target of $240,000 through an evolving framework that treats BTC as a maturing macro asset class, shifting from halving-cycle speculation to institutional liquidity-driven valuation, while earlier models used gold-parity comparisons for shorter-term fair value estimates like $170,000. This reflects BTC's transition from retail/VC-style pricing to risk-adjusted alignment with traditional assets amid recent pullbacks from $126,000 (Oct 2025) to ~$86,000.​

Gold-Based Fair Value Model ($170,000 Target)

JPMorgan's core mechanical model compares Bitcoin's market cap to gold's $6.2 trillion private investment base (ETFs, bars, coins), adjusting for BTC's higher risk profile (1.8x gold's volatility). Current BTC cap (~$2.1T) requires ~67% growth to capture two-thirds of gold's "risk capital," implying $170,000/BTC (up from prior $102,000–$165,000 estimates). Gold's recent volatility surge makes BTC relatively undervalued as an equity-risk hedge, with retail ETF flows and central bank gold buys accelerating the convergence.​

Macro Asset Evolution ($240,000 Long-Term)

The $240K projection, cited from a JPMorgan event speaker, views BTC as a "multi-year growth play" influenced by macro trends (rates, liquidity) over halving cycles. Analysts note institutional depth stabilizes prices post-retail deleveraging (perps liquidations done), with uneven liquidity still causing swings but supporting higher anchors. This builds on prior notes: BTC production floor ~$94K, ETF-linked notes offering 1.5x leveraged upside to 2028 targets.​

Key Assumptions and Context

Model assumes BTC consumes disproportionate risk capital vs. gold amid rising institutional adoption (CME futures net buying), debasement trades, and non-bank liquidity expansion. Risks include MSCI index exclusions for crypto-heavy firms (e.g., MicroStrategy) causing outflows, but JPMorgan sees deleveraging complete and macro tailwinds dominant.