NTPC Ltd Share Price Highlights: How has been Its historical performance?
NTPC Ltd India's largest power generator with 76,598 MW capacity (17% national share), has delivered solid long-term returns despite recent softness, posting 11% CAGR over 10 years, 28% over 5 years, and 24% over 3 years, though 1-year returns lag at -10% amid sector volatility. Trading at ₹326.45 (Nov 28, 2025 close, down 0.28%), the stock boasts PE 13.3x, PB 1.66x, 2.56% dividend yield, and FY25 PAT ₹23,953 Cr (up 12% YoY), supported by 9.95% ROCE.
Long-Term Price Performance
NTPC's share price has compounded steadily: from ~₹100 in 2015 to ₹326 today, navigating coal shortages (2021 dip), COVID volatility, and green transitions. Key milestones include 244% 5-year gains (peaking ₹375 52W high) versus Nifty's 150%, driven by capacity additions (84,924 MW group total post-Khavda solar COD).
| Period | Total Return | CAGR | vs Nifty |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Year | -9.83% | -10% | Nifty +25% |
| 3 Years | 91.58% | 24% | Nifty +50% |
| 5 Years | 244.72% | 28% | Nifty +100% |
| 10 Years | - | 11% | Nifty +200% |
52W range ₹293-375; beta 1.02 signals market parity.
Financial Trajectory and Growth Drivers
Revenue grew 9% CAGR (10Y), hitting ₹1.88L Cr FY25 (up 5%), with PAT margins ~12% via 30% EBITDA (OPM 29%). Q2 FY26 PAT ₹5,226 Cr (-4% QoQ) on ₹44,786 Cr sales, but capex surged ₹45,800 Cr (investing cash outflow up 42%) for renewables (target 60 GW by 2032). Debt/equity 1.34x manageable at interest coverage 4.3x; dividend payout 37% consistent (₹7.1/share FY25).
Strengths: 22% national generation share, NCLT-approved Sinnar thermal acquisition (1,350 MW), MSCI ESG upgrade (B rating).
Challenges: Sales growth 11% (5Y, below peers), ROE 12% (low vs Adani Power 24%), coal dependency amid green push.
Peer Comparison
NTPC leads scale but trails efficiency: FY25 sales ₹1.88L Cr vs Adani Power ₹46K Cr, yet lower NPM (11.6% vs 22.7%) and PLF (90% vs Adani 71%). Higher MCAP ₹3.17L Cr (sector #1).
| Metric | NTPC | Adani Power | JSW Energy | NLC India |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y Return | -10% | +31% | -26% | -6% |
| ROE | 12.7% | 24% | 7% | 14% |
| Debt/Equity | 1.34 | 0.71 | 1.81 | 1.20 |
| Sales Growth 3Y | 12% | 23% | 13% | 10% |
Valuation and Outlook
At 13x PE (sector median 27x), NTPC trades at discount to book ₹198/share; 24 analysts favor BUY (targets ₹430-450, 30% upside). Renewables pivot, Q3 results (Jan 2026), and power demand (8% CAGR) support re-rating, but FII outflows cap near-term amid volatility. Historical resilience favors long-term holders eyeing 15%+ CAGR through 2030 capex cycle.
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