Groww Share Price Surges 11%: Why Jefferies Sees 'India’s Robinhood' in the Making

Groww Share Price Surges 11%: Why Jefferies Sees 'India’s Robinhood' in the Making

Groww’s parent Billionbrains Garage Ventures jumped about 10–11% after Jefferies kicked off coverage with a Buy rating and tagged the discount broker as “India’s Robinhood”, signalling renewed optimism on its growth and profitability trajectory. The global brokerage sees strong operating leverage ahead, a multi-product playbook similar to Robinhood, and enough earnings momentum to support further upside from current levels despite an already sharp post-IPO rally.

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What triggered the 11% surge?

• Jefferies initiated coverage on Groww with a Buy call and a target price of around ₹180 per share, implying roughly 25–26% upside from pre-rally levels.​

• Following the note, the stock spiked intraday by about 10–13%, hitting the ₹160–163 zone versus the previous close near ₹144–145, even as the broader indices were only marginally higher.​

• The move comes on top of earlier gains: since its November IPO at ₹100, Groww has already delivered around 40–45% returns over the issue price and nearly 25–30% over the listing price.​

Why Jefferies calls it “India’s Robinhood”

Jefferies argues that Groww’s app, product cadence and customer profile mirror Robinhood’s evolution in the US, especially in how it built a young, first-time investor franchise through a sleek, mobile-first interface. The brokerage highlights that Groww has rapidly expanded beyond basic equity and mutual fund investing into commodities, bonds, margin trading, wealth management and even loans against securities, enabling deeper monetisation of its large MF-only user base.​

Key parallels and differentiators:

• Product velocity: Both platforms continuously roll out new investing products and features, using a unified tech stack to keep costs low and engagement high.​

• Young, digital-native customers: A large share of Groww’s investors are first-time, under-35, similar to Robinhood’s core cohort.​

• Lower F&O risk: Jefferies explicitly values Groww at a premium to Angel One because of its lower dependence on high-risk F&O trading and stronger unit economics in cash, MF and wealth products.​

• Valuation gap: On Jefferies’ numbers, Groww trades at around 27x one-year forward EPS, about a 30% discount to Robinhood despite a higher growth runway in India’s under-penetrated market.​

Groww vs Robinhood vs Angel One (Jefferies’ framing)

Metric / View	Groww (Billionbrains)	Robinhood (US)	Angel One (India peer)
Core identity	Low-cost, app-first broker, largest by active clients in India.​	Commission-free US trading app turned multi-asset platform.​	Legacy broker transformed into digital-first full-service model.​
Customer profile	Young, first-time investors, heavy MF and equity cash participation.​	Young retail, options-heavy, high trading frequency.​	Mix of retail traders and investors with higher F&O skew.​
Product scope	Equities, MFs, derivatives, commodities, bonds, MTF, wealth, LAS.​	Equities, options, crypto, cash management.​	Equities, F&O, MTF, advisory, some wealth offerings.​
Growth thesis	35% EPS CAGR FY26–28 from broking, 5x MTF & wealth, operating leverage.​	Maturing growth; re-rating hinges on stabilised profitability and new products.​	Healthy but slower, tied to market cycles and F&O volumes.​
Valuation (Jefferies lens)	~33x Dec-27E EPS, 27x 1-yr EPS; ~15–30% discount to Robinhood.​	Higher multiple; benchmark for app-based brokers.​	Valued lower; Jefferies assigns discount vs Groww given lower growth and margins.​

The numbers behind Jefferies’ bullish call

Jefferies lays out a fairly granular earnings roadmap to justify the Buy rating and ₹180 target.​

• EPS growth:

  • Projects about 35% compound annual EPS growth over FY26–FY28 driven by a combination of customer addition, higher activity and product mix shift.​

• Broking engine:

  • Around 19% growth expected in the core broking business, led by rising client vintage (older customers trading and investing more over time) and further market share gains in active clients.​

• New initiatives:

  • Roughly 5x growth potential in margin trading facility (MTF) and wealth management, from a small base today, which can sharply lift revenue per active client.​

• Margin expansion:

  • About 700 basis points improvement in operating margins is projected as scale kicks in, tech and in-house stack keep unit costs low, and marketing spends normalise.​

The brokerage also stresses that Groww has built its UI/UX and core technology in-house, which is structurally margin-accretive over time compared with peers relying heavily on third-party platforms.​

What this means for investors and the stock

For investors, the Jefferies note effectively reframes Groww from a one-off IPO momentum story into a scalable, profitable fintech compounder, but with valuation risk that must be respected.​

Key takeaways:

• At ~27x one-year forward EPS and 33x Dec-27E EPS, the stock is far from cheap in absolute terms, but Jefferies argues the premium is justified by growth visibility, high ROEs and a relatively cleaner risk profile versus F&O-heavy brokers.​

• The ₹180 target implies limited margin of safety if growth disappoints, competitive intensity spikes, or regulations crimp retail trading and margin products.​

• On the positive side, India’s still-low equity and MF penetration, Groww’s leadership in active clients, and its cross-sell optionality (loan against securities, wealth, fixed-income products) create a long runway similar to Robinhood’s early days but in a structurally under-served market.​

For an in-depth article, this sets up a clear narrative arc: a newly listed, already profitable fintech broker that just got a strong vote of confidence from a global house, is being positioned as “India’s Robinhood”, and now trades where future execution on growth, product expansion and regulation will determine whether the current re-rating sustains or fades.