Nasdaq Suffers Worst Month Since March: What History Says Happens Next
The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.5% in November 2025—its worst monthly performance since an 8.2% plunge in March—snapping a seven-month winning streak amid AI valuation concerns, tariff fears, and fading Fed rate-cut bets, though it remains up 53% from April's bear-market low in the ongoing bull phase. History reveals resilience post-similar dips: since 1990, the index has averaged 281% total returns (31% annualized) over bull markets lasting ~5 years after monthly losses, with rebounds often accelerating as corrections shake out froth.
November Context and Triggers
Tech-heavy Nasdaq shed gains despite Black Friday rebounds, dragged by Nvidia
Historical Patterns After Monthly Declines
Post-1990 bull starts (e.g., Oct 2002: +628% over 5,805 days; March 2020: +134% in 606 days), Nasdaq monthly losses precede outsized recoveries—average 228% upside from current levels if patterns hold, targeting ~24,000+ from ~20,000 base amid Elliott Wave corrections to 22,600 support. Only 1/6 prior bulls lasted <2 years; December seasonality favors gains (top-3 months historically).
Bull Market Outlook and Risks
Current bull (official June 2025) implies 4+ years left at historical pace, projecting 31% CAGR to ~43,000 if valuations normalize; supports at 24,000-22,600 (200DMA) hold for upside to 26,000. Risks: economic weakness (recession signals), sustained high valuations, or failed Fed pivot could trigger 15-20% pullback—watch CPI/PPI, consumer confidence.
High valuations warrant caution, but history favors bulls enduring dips—position for rebound via diversified tech exposure.
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