ICICI Bank vs. HDFC Bank: A Data-Driven Long-Term Comparison

ICICI Bank vs. HDFC Bank: A Data-Driven Long-Term Comparison

 

ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank dominate private banking with robust Q3FY26 updates showing steady growth amid high LDR concerns and deposit mobilization. ICICI edges in efficiency and ROE (17.9% vs 14.4%), while HDFC leads in scale (₹14.57 lakh Cr mcap vs ₹10.26 lakh Cr) and dividend yield (1.16% vs 0.77%). Data reveals ICICI as the superior long-term pick for growth at 19x P/E, though HDFC's stability suits conservative investors.​

Business Snapshots

ICICI Bank (₹1,435/share, 52W ₹1,186-1,500) boasts diversified lending (retail 55%, SME/corporate growth), 39.4% CASA, NIM 4.57%, GNPA 2.30%, NNPA 0.44%. Q3 NP ₹14,318 Cr (+3% YoY), sales ₹48,181 Cr (+4%). HDFC Bank (₹947/share, 52W ₹812-1,020) post-merger giant with Q3 advances ₹28.4 lakh Cr (+12% YoY), deposits +11.5%, but shares down 5% on LDR fears.​

Financial Metrics

ICICI shows superior profit CAGR (40% 5Y vs HDFC 21%), ROE consistency; HDFC's sales edge from merger (₹3.36 lakh Cr TTM).​

Metric	ICICI Bank ​	HDFC Bank ​
Mcap (₹ Cr)	10,25,626	14,56,689
Price (₹)	1,435	947
P/E	19.2	20.2
P/BV	3.08	2.71
ROE (%)	17.9	14.4
ROCE (%)	7.87	7.51
Div Yield (%)	0.77	1.16
Book Value (₹)	466	351
EPS TTM (₹)	74.7	47.0

Performance Trends

ICICI's 5Y stock CAGR 22% outpaces HDFC's 6%, reflecting faster execution post-merger; 1Y ICICI +14%, HDFC +12%. Profit growth: ICICI 39.8% 5Y CAGR vs HDFC 21%; both maintain healthy dividends (ICICI 15% payout).​

Growth (5Y CAGR %)	ICICI ​	HDFC ​
Sales	17	22
Profit	40	21
Stock Price	22	6

Q3FY26 Highlights

HDFC advances +11.9% YoY to ₹28.4 lakh Cr, deposits +11.5%, LDR elevated prompting caution; shares fell 4-5% pre-results. ICICI Q3 NP +3%, credit +11.5% (business banking +30%), retail steady; NIM stable, provisions prudent. Both CAR >16%, buffers intact amid benign NPAs.​

Valuation & Targets

ICICI trades at fair 19x, targets ₹1,226-1,795 (2026, +20% upside); HDFC 20x post-dip, ₹933-1,253 (+20%). ICICI's PEG 0.69 signals better growth value; HDFC undervalued P/B but merger drag lingers.​

Insights & Strategy

ICICI wins on momentum: higher ROE, efficiency (lower cost-income), digital edge (InstaBIZ, STACK); ideal for 20-25% CAGR to 2030. HDFC offers defensive moat via branch network, provision buffers (1.4% loans), suits income plays. Allocate 60% ICICI/40% HDFC; buy ICICI >₹1,400 hold, HDFC dips <₹930. Track Jan 17 results for NIM/LDR; rate cuts favor both (15-20% total returns).